INTU

Outcome

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Return

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Status

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Outcome

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Return

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Status

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Outcome

✓

Return

-0.37%

Status

scored

The binding corpus across 10+ prior iterations demonstrates that reduced-sizing Hold is the only expression producing positive alpha (+10.5% cumulative across five iterations), while every other posture (Buy, Overweight, Underweight, Sell, full-weight Hold) has bled -2.9% to -13.5% alpha. Maintain INTU at 20-25% below benchmark weight with a hard $268 closing-basis stop, explicit no-add rule ahead of the Q1 FY27 binary catalyst in mid-November, and T1 deployment trigger at confirmed close >$298.5 with rising volume >3.5M AND MACD positive AND RSI >35 for partial scale-up toward 75% of intended weight—not full Overweight.

Outcome

✓

Return

+2.23%

Status

scored

Maintain reduced-sizing Hold on INTU (20-25% below benchmark weight) with 10-15% notional put overlay at $260-$280 strikes (4-6 month duration) and hard stop at $252.84. The binding corpus framework—5+ failed Underweight/Sell iterations (cumulative -13.5% alpha) versus 4 successful reduced-sizing Hold iterations (cumulative +7.8% alpha)—disposes of the Research Manager's Underweight recommendation. T1 re-engagement trigger at $298.5 (Bollinger middle band + MACD positive + RSI >35) calls for partial deployment toward 75% of intended weight; T2 at $323 with 50 SMA reclaim + volume >5M enables full Hold. Q1 FY27 print in late November is the binary catalyst that resolves the structural thesis; the put overlay underwrites AI-disintermediation and macro tail risks in the interim.

Outcome

✗

Return

+2.56%

Status

scored

Maintain INTU at reduced sizing (20-25% below benchmark) with a 10-15% notional put overlay at $260-$280 strikes (4-6 month duration), hard stop at $252.84 (52-week low / thesis invalidation), and no fresh capital deployment until technical confirmation ahead of Q1 FY27 print in late November.

Outcome

✓

Return

+1.80%

Status

scored

Maintain INTU exposure at 20-25% below benchmark weight with a hard $268 closing-basis stop and explicit no-add rule through the Q1 FY27 binary catalyst in mid-November. The valuation floor is real (10.5x forward P/E, 23.6% ROE, 8.3% FCF yield, $5.4B annualized buyback) and the buyback mechanism has defended the $268 level empirically, but the technical tape remains hostile (Death Cross intact, MACD negative at -14.32, RSI at 39.62, price below all major MAs) with the binary catalyst approximately six weeks away. A tactical 10-15% notional put overlay at $260-$280 strikes underwrites tail risk without over-hedging a buyback-defended floor, per the 10/02 lesson that 25-30% overlay was too aggressive for this exact configuration.

Outcome

✓

Return

+1.28%

Status

scored

Maintain INTU at 20-25% below benchmark weight with a $263 hard stop and 25-30% notional put hedge at $260-$280 strikes (4-6 month duration); do not add capital through the Q1 FY27 binary catalyst in mid-November, and trim 25-30% if Polymarket 5.5% 10Y probability crosses 60% (currently 44%). Re-engage via tiered triggers at $293 (momentum repair, 75% position) or $324 (Death Cross invalidation, full position) depending on technical confirmation and Q1 FY27 print outcome.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.60%

Status

scored

Maintain INTU at 20-25% below benchmark weight with a $252 hard stop and no-add rule through the Q1 FY27 binary catalyst in mid-November. The valuation floor (10.4x forward P/E, $6.35B TTM FCF, 23.6% ROE, $5.4B annual buyback) makes Underweight/Sell wrong, while the hostile technical setup (Death Cross, expanding-negative MACD, price below all MAs) and binding corpus lesson against fresh capital deployment make Buy/Overweight wrong. Re-engage via triggers at $293 (partial) or $324 (full), or reassess Underweight if Q1 FY27 guide-down confirms bear case.

Outcome

✗

Return

+2.56%

Status

scored

Reduce INTU exposure by 30-50% from current weight over 2-4 weeks, scaling sales into the $280-290 zone (10 EMA) rather than the $315-325 zone (50 SMA), with a hard stop at $252.84. The FQ1 FY27 print in late October/early November 2026 is the explicit binary reassessment window, with beat-and-raise reducing Underweight toward Hold-reduced and guide-down forcing exit to zero residual.

Outcome

✗

Return

+2.87%

Status

scored

Maintain existing INTU exposure with a tactical trim (20-25% below benchmark weight) per the binding 9/28 corpus lesson, preserving floor-thesis participation while mechanically reducing unavoidable beta drag. Hard stop at $252 closing basis; no new buying until confirmed technical repair via re-engagement triggers ($293 partial, $324 full) or the FQ1 FY27 binary print in mid-November.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.51%

Status

scored

Maintain INTU at current exposure with a $252 hard stop through the mid-November FQ1 FY27 print. Valuation appears compelling at 16.4x TTM P/E and 8.8% FCF yield, but technical weakness (MACD expanding to -6.16, falling 200 SMA, 24% YoY deferred revenue decline) and unresolved fundamentals counsel against new capital deployment until momentum stabilizes or earnings confirm a turn.

Outcome

✓

Return

-2.32%

Status

scored

Maintain INTU at genuinely reduced sizing (50-70% of intended allocation) rather than full benchmark exposure, as Hold at full weight has bled alpha through beta drag across nine prior iterations. Do not add despite attractive valuation (10.2x forward P/E, 8.6% FCF yield, 23% ROE, $5.4B annual buyback) because the technical setup remains unambiguously bearish with stacked bearish MAs and MACD at its worst reading since May; mechanical re-engagement triggers are defined at $325 (full) and $295 (partial) with specific technical confirmations required. Hard stop at $252 with 25-30% notional put hedge at $260-$280 strikes for 4-6 months to underwrite AI-structural and macro tail risk, with Q1 FY27 earnings (late October/early November 2026) serving as the binary reassessment checkpoint.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.48%

Status

scored

Hold at current INTU exposure with no new capital deployment ahead of the Q1 FY27 binary reassessment window in late October/early November 2026. Both directions of escalation have failed—9/15 Overweight bled -2.9%, 9/22 Sell bled -2.7%, and 9/23 Underweight bled -3.3%—while the valuation anomaly ($7.2B cash, 23.6% ROE, PEG 0.91) and franchise-floor mechanism remain structurally intact but do not override the binding corpus of 8 consecutive negative-alpha iterations.

Outcome

✓

Return

-3.37%

Status

scored

Maintain Underweight at 5-10% benchmark weight (reduced from 10-15%), with hard stop at $252 and tighter 2% total portfolio risk cap. Five consecutive negative-alpha decisions demonstrate the residual itself is the structural problem, not the sizing math. Q1 FY27 earnings in late Oct/early Nov is the binary reassessment window; re-engagement requires Death Cross invalidation at $424 or close >$318.68 with MACD/RSI repair.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.90%

Status

scored

Initiate short exposure on INTU at 2-3% portfolio weight using a three-tranche structure due to a six-decision negative-alpha streak proving that residual Underweight exposure destroys rather than captures value. Staged entries at lower Bollinger Band test ($292-296) and RSI ≤30 or failed $313-330 bounce, blended to $305-310 average entry with $325-332 stop, targeting $278 and $240. Hard stop on all tranches at $345 close; Q1 FY27 print (late October) is the binary reassessment window.

Outcome

✓

Return

-3.87%

Status

scored

Trim INTU to 10-15% benchmark weight (deeper than prior 20-30% residual) with a 2-3 week time-decay exit framework, following five consecutive negative-alpha decisions that empirically invalidate neutral and token Underweight sizing. Preserve franchise-floor option value ($8.4B liquid assets, $5.4B TTM buyback, 7.5% FCF yield) while capping the residual tightly to stop the bleeding-alpha pattern. Hard stop at $252 on closing basis; re-engagement requires Death Cross invalidation at $424 or confirmed close above $318.68 with momentum repair.

Outcome

–

Return

+0.31%

Status

scored

Reject the trader's Buy proposal and Research Manager's Overweight phased-entry plan; four consecutive negative-alpha INTU decisions (9/14–9/17) and no discrete re-rating catalyst in price mandate defaulting to Underweight per the binding 9/17 reflection. Reduce exposure to 40–50% residual weight to preserve franchise-floor option value at $252.84 while avoiding full exit per the 9/8 beta-drag lesson.

Outcome

✗

Return

-3.17%

Status

scored

Maintain INTU at current weight with a disciplined trigger framework: add trigger at weekly close above $340 (signals basing completion with 2-3% measured add), trim/escalation trigger at weekly close below $252 (structural invalidation of basing thesis toward Underweight). Q1 FY27 print in early November is the binary catalyst to watch for customer-growth language, Intuit Intelligence attach-rate disclosure, and upward guidance revision. Tactical bias is defensive given three consecutive negative-alpha INTU decisions and intact Death Cross, but full Underweight is rejected per 9/10 and 9/11 lessons showing the franchise-floor mechanism reliably absorbs selling and underweight sizing bleeds alpha through beta drag.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.57%

Status

scored

Maintain INTU at slight underweight while trimming into the $325-340 resistance cluster ahead of the Sep 17 Investor Day binary catalyst. The 11.6x forward P/E valuation is anomalous but the Sep 15 lesson forecloses adding fresh longs in a technically bearish regime with near-term binary catalysts. Re-engagement to add requires all four technical repair conditions (close >$342 on volume, MACD positive cross, RSI >50, confirmed higher low) — the $298 closing-basis stop protects against the modal bounce-failure scenario.

Outcome

✗

Return

-3.38%

Status

scored

Establish Overweight via staged entries starting at 0.4% portfolio weight (1/3 of 1.0-1.5% target) post-FOMC, with a hard stop at $252 closing basis representing structural invalidation of the basing thesis; reserve two additional 1/3 tranches for $312-315 retest with MACD histogram turning and weekly close above $415 (200 SMA reclaim) with confirmed volume and momentum signals. Reassess at Q1 FY27 print (late Oct/early Nov) as the binary catalyst determining whether the 12x multiple defends or compresses.

Outcome

✗

Return

-2.91%

Status

scored

Maintain INTU at current weight with a structured Hold overlay, neither adding at current levels ($335-345) nor underweighting given the 7.5% capital-return yield and 50 SMA defense at $320. Hedge catastrophic downside via $300 strike March puts at 1.5-2% of position value, trim 10-15% into any $369-379 rally, and re-evaluate at the mid-October 4-week checkpoint or Q1 FY27 earnings in late October/early November.

Outcome

✗

Return

+5.47%

Status

scored

Hold rating maintained as the most recent 9/10 lesson explicitly prescribes covered-call overlay over Underweight when the capital-return floor mechanism defends the 50 SMA, overriding all three risk analysts' bearish magnitude proposals (30-70% underweight) that violate prior 9/8 sizing failures. Execution framework emphasizes monetizing elevated IV through covered calls above $370-400 strike while maintaining $308 working stop and $290 hard exit, with no position adds until Death Cross invalidation at $424 confirmed by MACD bullish cross and rising volume above 6M shares.

Outcome

✗

Return

+2.81%

Status

scored

Trim INTU to 20-30% residual (rejecting the trader's 67-75% and analyst's 50-60% retentions per the binding 9/8 lesson), with covered-call overlay on strikes above $400 to capture elevated implied volatility; hard stop at $290 closing basis. Full SELL is rejected given the 7.5% FCF yield franchise floor and capital-return option value, while the aggressive analyst's point that options market prices a $210 floor 39% below current is adopted as reinforcing the asymmetric downside skew justifying Underweight.

Outcome

–

Return

-0.37%

Status

scored

Initiate Overweight with phased token-sized entry at the $315-$325 zone (25-33% of target, capped at 0.6% portfolio risk), with stop at $278 and reserve capital for adds below $290 or above $335 with RSI>50 and volume>5M. Full conviction Buy requires Death Cross invalidation at $424; reassess at mid-October checkpoint.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.56%

Status

scored

Hold rating maintained with rejection of the trader's Buy initiation at $332. The binding 9/4 lesson explicitly prohibits sizing beyond token ≤1.0% until Death Cross invalidation at ~$424, citing the quality compounder's intact downtrend (50 SMA $310 < 200 SMA $432) and unresolved event risks (IRS Direct File, $19.28B Mailchimp goodwill, class action). Upgrade only on close >$424 with MACD bullish cross or >$349-355 with contracting MACD histogram; downgrade to Underweight if range-bound action persists at the 4-week checkpoint with no basing signal.

Outcome

✗

Return

-4.14%

Status

scored

Initiate Overweight on [company] using cash-secured $300 strike puts (60-90 DTE) at 1.0-1.5% portfolio sizing, with staged equity adds on three technical confirmation triggers (Trigger 1: $326 confirmed daily close + RSI<35; Trigger 2: $349 midline reclaim + RSI>50; Trigger 3: $424 200 SMA reclaim + MACD bullish cross). Hard invalidation at $290 weekly close; re-evaluate at 4-week mark and mid-November FY27 Q1 print. Park uncommitted capital in 1-3 month Treasuries at 4-5% rather than idle cash.

Outcome

✗

Return

-3.37%

Status

scored

INTU remains HOLD with a moderate conviction as the stock stabilizes above the $324 floor mechanism (now empirically validated by two consecutive Underweight failures generating -1.7% cumulative alpha). The forward EPS arithmetic argues against aggressive bullish positioning, while the franchise floor (80.8% gross margins, 47% operating margins, $6.4B annual FCF) argues against further bearish positioning. Maintain current weight; hard stop at $324; add threshold at $340; upgrade to Overweight on confirmed breakout above $370 on >10M volume for two consecutive closes.

Outcome

–

Return

+0.40%

Status

scored

Maintain Underweight rating on INTU with a measured additional trim of 15-20% of residual position staged over 2-3 sessions in the $340-348 zone, targeting 40-45% of benchmark allocation. The two-stage escalation framework commits to cutting to 30% residual on close below $310 with above-5M volume, and to 15% residual on close below $280, while preserving a hard floor of 10% residual given the 5.7% capital return yield; single re-engagement trigger to upgrade to Hold requires close above $370 on greater-than-6M volume with RSI above 60 and positive MACD histogram.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.58%

Status

scored

Moderate-High conviction Underweight call on INTU, trimming to 50-60% of benchmark weight over 2-3 sessions in the $340-348 zone, capping INTU-specific risk at 1.5% NAV, with a two-stage exit framework at $315 (cut to 30% residual) and $280 (cut to 15% residual), preserving a 10% hard floor. The call is driven by consensus EPS overstatement (bear FV $250-280), deteriorating macro (10Y at 4.80%), AI-driven pricing power compression, and bearish technicals, while the 5.7% capital return yield and franchise fundamentals prevent an outright Sell.

Outcome

✗

Return

-4.00%

Status

scored

Maintain benchmark-neutral INTU exposure without adding or trimming, awaiting the mid-November Q1 FY27 print to resolve the binary catalyst. The 13x forward P/E on potentially downward-revising estimates, combined with management's conservative 9-10% revenue growth guide and an intact Death Cross at the $432 200 SMA, argues against directional aggression despite the franchise's anomalous 80.8% gross margins and 157% FCF conversion. Upgrade triggers (all must be met) include daily close above $400 with positive MACD, 60+ days of insider buying, Q1 beat, and 200 SMA flattening.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.35%

Status

scored

Maintain neutral-weight position with no active trim or hedges per the binding 8/27 reflection (+3.1% alpha), which demonstrated that patience and a single re-entry trigger outperforms multi-trigger architecture. Entry triggers are single: bullish confirmation at close > $370 on >6M volume (scale to 1.0-1.25x in tranches), bearish trigger at close < $335 on elevated volume (trim to 50% residual), with hard stop at $337 on new exposure.

Outcome

✗

Return

+2.89%

Status

scored

Maintain existing INTU exposure at $348 without adding fresh longs until technical structure clarifies. Bullish confirmation (close > $370 on >6M volume) triggers scaling back in via thirds ($370, $400, $430), while bearish confirmation (close < $335 on elevated volume) signals trimming toward the lower end of any existing position. A partial hedge (collar or put spread) ahead of Jackson Hole is recommended to define tail risk through the binary catalyst, with structural invalidation at weekly close below $295.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.61%

Status

scored

Hold rating maintained with active trim reducing residual target weight from ~50-60% to ~30%, executed scaled over 2-3 sessions into the $340-348 zone. Maintain Sep 19 $330/$290 put spread on residual for tail insurance; no fresh adds. Re-entry contingent on three-prong confirmation: 50 SMA reclaim on volume, FY27 EPS stabilization, and software sector rotation intact.

Outcome

✗

Return

-3.24%

Status

scored

Hold INTU with an active 40-50% trim executed over 2-3 sessions into the $355-360 zone, retaining 50-60% core residual with a stop at $305-308, while parking freed capital in short-duration Treasuries or a hedged software ETF basket pending one of three reload triggers. The decision explicitly honors the binding 8/17 lesson (bear fair value $342-$380 overlaps $357, precluding Underweight framing) while responding to the new 8/24 data point that 80% residual was too large for this regime.

Outcome

✗

Return

-3.37%

Status

scored

Maintain the HOLD rating with existing ~80% residual exposure from the prior trim and Sep 19 $330/$290 put spread as tail insurance. The decision explicitly rejects both additional trimming to ≤50% and any Underweight/full-exit framing, citing binding lessons that the bear-case fair value ($342-$380) sits within 10% of the $374 price, making defensive trim correct but directional underweight unsupported. Pre-committed post-print triggers govern re-entry/exit: scale toward 1.0-1.25x benchmark within 1-2 sessions on clean beat holding $340+, or exit on miss/soft guide with close below 50 SMA.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.80%

Status

scored

Maintain 80% residual exposure with no fresh longs at $367, as the Aug 25 earnings catalyst remains 3-4 trading days out while RSI sits at 68 (not reset below 60) and the Death Cross remains intact with the 200 SMA at $439 still overhead. Use the Sep 19 $330/$290 put spread as the primary downside mechanism rather than the $298 hard stop, which sits below the put floor and creates contradictory risk controls; post-print scaling to 1.0–1.25x benchmark is conditional on guidance in-line-or-better, stock holding $340+ on the print reaction, and broader software rotation remaining intact.

Outcome

✓

Return

+1.42%

Status

scored

Hold INTU with a defensive 20% trim scaled over 2–3 sessions at $365–378, retaining 80% core exposure with structural invalidation at the 50 SMA ($295), while layering Sep 19 $330/$290 put spreads (~1.5–2% of position cost) to define catastrophic downside through the Aug 25 binary catalyst; no fresh longs at current levels.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.17%

Status

scored

Maintain a defensive Hold on INTU with a 25-30% trim scaled across 3-4 sessions at $360, $363-366, and extensions toward $370, avoiding new purchases ahead of the August 25 earnings catalyst. Hedge the residual long with a modest collar or partial puts, and set two asymmetric re-entry triggers: a pullback to the 10 EMA at ~$341 following a beat-and-raise, or a flush to $295-300 with RSI below 35 and capitulation volume. Structural invalidation sits at $295 (50 SMA), with a price target of $348 and re-evaluation through the earnings print and subsequent 1-2 weeks.

Outcome

✗

Return

+3.44%

Status

scored

Maintain a defensive Hold on INTU with a 25-40% trim into the $358-363 resistance zone ahead of the August 25 earnings catalyst, while structuring new capital exposure via cash-secured puts at $290-310 strikes to collect ~14-16% annualized premium. The position avoids Underweight/Sell framing because the franchise floor (12.8x forward P/E, PEG 0.90, $6B FCF, 0.52x net leverage) sits within 10% of current price, making a directional bearish bet unjustified by the unit economics.

Outcome

✗

Return

+4.41%

Status

scored

Trim 20-30% of INTU exposure ahead of the August 25 earnings catalyst, retaining 70-80% of the position under a protective collar (buy $300-$310 put / sell $380-$400 call) that defines the range of outcomes without importing tail risk. Maintain a $358 stop disciplined to the MACD divergence high, with full reassessment after the print—do not initiate fresh longs at the current price.

Outcome

✓

Return

-2.91%

Status

scored

Maintain INTU exposure at $345.66 without additions. The 8/13 INTU Overweight decision provides the binding lesson — a 30% starter at $357.50 produced -3.5% return in a setup with identical structural features now present (shooting star at upper Bollinger Band, Death Cross confirmed, RSI at 64 above the 60 threshold, and 11 days to binary earnings catalyst). The aggressive analyst's own preferred entry zone of $318–334 sits $25–30 below current price, eliminating directional conviction at current levels. Event-risk protection via 1–2 month ATM or 5–10% OTM puts at 1–2% portfolio cost is the appropriate response to the symmetric risk profile until the August 25 print resolves the setup.

Outcome

✗

Return

-3.53%

Status

scored

The analyst recommends establishing a 30% starter long position at $357.50 (down from more aggressive calls) with a tight $320 stop anchored to the Bollinger mid, hedged with a defined-risk put spread (long Sep $320/short $285) at 1-1.5% of equity, while reserving 30% for a $325-345 add-on with mechanical entry conditions (10 EMA hold, positive MACD histogram, RSI above 50) and 40% for post-August-25 earnings deployment contingent on a clean beat-and-raise. Despite compelling fundamentals (0.87 PEG, 22.5% ROE, $5.23B FCF, 5% buyback yield), the overbought technicals (RSI 72, Bollinger pierce, Death Cross overhead) and 12-day binary catalyst justify measured sizing rather than full conviction, with the $320 stop being technically superior to the trader's $292 anchor at the 50 SMA.

Outcome

✓

Return

+7.04%

Status

scored

Analyst rates the stock Overweight with a $348 price target versus the ~$315 entry, citing 22.5% ROE, 12.3x forward P/E, and a ~5% annual buyback as structural support, though the $450 200 SMA overhead supply and $14B goodwill concentration (68% of book) warrant a calibrated position. Recommend building a 50% starter position (~2-3% portfolio) on a pullback to the $310-320 support zone, with adds reserved for either a retest of $290-300 with bullish RSI divergence or a breakout above $340; hard stop at $250, trim into strength at $380-400, and re-evaluate at the Q4 FY26 earnings print.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.51%

Status

scored

Trim 20-30% of INTU exposure into the $336 level and $346-$360 resistance zone under a "Underweight" rating, retaining a residual position with defined re-engagement triggers. The macro and technical setup (69% bear market peak-to-trough decline, 86% no-cut Fed probability, Truist downgrade, barren forward calendar, 33.7% counter-trend rally failing below a falling 200 SMA) justifies reducing exposure, but the franchise economics (80.8% gross margins, 22.5% ROE, 12.3x forward P/E, 5.7% FCF yield, net debt down 52% YoY, $8.81B deferred revenue) and the bear's own $342-$380 fair value math (within 10% of current price) preclude full capitulation — making the 50% underweight "Sell" proposal an overreach.

Outcome

–

Return

+0.60%

Status

scored

Trim 30–50% of the existing INTU position into the +33% bounce off the June 22 lows at $334, retaining a residual with defined risk-managed re-engagement; while the macro setup (86% no-cut probability, Truist downgrade, Fundsmith exit) justifies an Underweight/SELL rating, the bear's own math at a normalized 18–20x multiple still supports $342–$380 fair value, making a 50%+ trim and full exit intellectually inconsistent with the bounded-downside thesis. The residual should carry a trailing stop at $290 daily close and be partially hedged with 60-day 95% puts on one-third of the remaining position as earnings-event insurance, with re-engagement triggers at either a confirmed close above $458 (200 SMA reclaim) or a pullback-hold at $285–$300 for more than one week on declining volume.

Outcome

✓

Return

+2.82%

Status

scored

Hold INTU at current levels with 3-4% portfolio cap pending FQ1 FY27 catalyst (late August/early September); execute 10-15% trim into $338-340 resistance zone to capture rebound premium. Tighten stop-loss to $295 (above 50-day SMA at $291), avoiding the $268 lower-Bollinger as too distant at 4.6% ATR. Post-print framework: add to 5% cap if guidance validates, trim toward 3% on guidance reset or goodwill impairment event.