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NYSE · Health Care · Drug Manufacturers - General

LLY

Eli Lilly and Company

Discovers and sells prescription drugs, with obesity and diabetes treatments accounting for the bulk of its revenue growth.

$1180.16-2.39%
Close · 2026-08-14
Current callSubscribers2026-08-14
$800$1,000$1,200
NovFebMayAug
Market context
$650.50
$1249.4552-week range, last close at 88% of the range
1W
-0.47%
1M
+2.03%
3M
+17.44%
6M
+13.67%
YTD
+10.19%
1Y
+73.65%
Avg vol 20d
2.7M
RVOL
0.80
HOLD band
Fundamentalsas of 2026-08-14
Mkt cap
$1.05T
P/E
39.7
Fwd P/E
24.9
EPS
$29.74
Div yield
0.59%
Beta
0.51
Employees
50K
Next earnings
2026-10-29
Rating & verdict historyoldest → newest
  1. ✓
  2. ✗
  3. ✓
  4. ✗
  5. ✓
  6. ✓
  7. ✗
DateCallOutcomeReturnTakeaway
2026-08-14Subscribers——Subscribe to read
2026-08-13Subscribers——Subscribe to read
2026-08-12Subscribers——Subscribe to read
2026-08-11Subscribers——Subscribe to read
2026-08-10Subscribers
±2.32%

    • 57.1% correct+0.96% avg moveBUY 0/1 · HOLD 3/4 · SELL 1/2

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    Subscribe to read
    2026-08-07HOLD✗+3.90%Maintain Eli Lilly at current weight without adding at $1,186 or trimming aggressively. Execute via 33-40% scale-in tranches (not the aggressive 50% or conservative 25-30%) at $1,100-$1,125 with $1,090 hard stop for first tranche and $1,031-$1,050 reserved for confirmed 200 SMA touch. No derivative overlays; use mechanical MA-based invalidation (close below $1,157 on volume breaks medium-term thesis, below $1,031 breaks long-term thesis). Q3 2026 earnings is the binary catalyst.
    2026-08-06HOLD✓-0.52%Maintain LLY at Hold as the setup remains constructive but technically unconfirmed; dual-confirmation triggers ($1,225 close + positive MACD histogram) are required before adding, with a hard stop at $1,155. The investment thesis balances exceptional fundamental execution (+91% Mounjaro growth, second guidance raise to $85–87B, 107% ROE) against extended valuation (25.8x forward P/E) and unconfirmed technicals, with prior lesson track record dictating patience over aggression. Reassess at next earnings print or upon technical resolution.
    2026-08-05HOLD✓+1.89%Maintain core LLY position at current weight—do not add at $1,170 nor trim aggressively. Execute mechanically: trim in thirds at $1,200, $1,236, and $1,260; add only on pullback to $1,115-$1,130 with size capped at 25-50% of aggressive accumulation levels; hard stop at $1,150. No protective puts or collars per the 2026-08-03 lesson that vol structures destroy alpha on this name. Upgrade to Overweight requires two of three confirmations: sustained close above $1,236, MACD bullish re-cross, or volume-validated breakout above prior high.
    2026-08-04SELL✗+4.86%Trim LLY by 40-50% ahead of the August 5 earnings print, reducing exposure to the binary event given five bearish near-term technicals (price below both 10 EMA at $1,168 and 50 SMA at $1,149, deeply negative MACD histogram, RSI at 40, VWMA declining from $1,196 to $1,170), decelerating sequential revenue growth (from +22% to +2.6% over five quarters), extended valuations at 32x book and 24.9x forward P/E, and unfavorable risk/reward skewed roughly 2:1 to the downside before the earnings binary. Re-build to neutral weight only after either the 200 SMA at ~$1,025 holds with RSI re-capturing 50, or after a clean breakout above the 50 SMA ($1,150) on volume with a bullish MACD cross.
    2026-08-03SELL✓-0.51%Trim 40-55% of LLY ahead of the August 5 earnings binary given unanimous bearish technical signals (price below 10 EMA and 50 SMA, MACD histogram at -8.88 and widening, VWMA declining), decelerating revenue growth from +22% to +2.6% over five quarters, and asymmetric risk/reward with roughly $47 upside to the 10 EMA versus $97 downside to the 200 SMA. Layer a defined-risk collar (sell ~$1,250 calls / buy ~$1,050 puts) on remaining exposure to monetize elevated implied vol while maintaining upside participation on a clean beat-and-raise, with a hard stop at $1,100 close.
    2026-07-31BUY✗-2.39%Overweight LLY via disciplined tranched accumulation, deploying ~25% on confirmed defense of the 50 SMA at $1,147 with a bullish reversal candle, reserving the second tranche for a post-earnings flush into the $1,090-$1,120 zone with capitulation signals, and the third tranche for a confirmed base above $1,200 with 10 EMA reclaim on volume. Hard stop placed at $1,050 (below 200 SMA, ~2.7 ATRs from entry), with 35-40% trim sized into any move above $1,400; tactical review at Q2 2026 earnings.
    2026-07-30HOLD✓-0.53%Maintain LLY at neutral weight without adding at current levels ($1,150-$1,170) given a confirmed momentum breakdown (bearish MACD cross, lost 10 EMA, -4.55% distribution day) testing the 50 SMA at $1,144.77. Execute mechanically: REDUCE 25% on daily close below $1,136 on volume >2.5M shares; EXIT remaining 75% on daily close below $1,130. Re-entry requires either holding $1,144 and reclaiming $1,185 on volume >2M shares, or a post-Q2 pullback into $1,050-$1,090 zone.